Spotify Stock Slide Continues As KeyBanc Reduces Its Target Price

KeyBanc is the latest firm to settle on a reduced Spotify stock (NYSE: SPOT) target price, and SPOT is now down 28% since 2026’s beginning. But with the company scheduled to post its Q4 2025 financials tomorrow, could an unexpectedly good report turn things around?

Despite their relatively measured Spotify stock assessments, analysts would presumably answer in the affirmative. As we’ve covered in detail, even the most bearish of SPOT’s dialed-back targets – and the retreat from sky-high forecasts, varying price predictions aside, has more or less been universal – still point to a significant upside.

Though not quite on the low end, KeyBanc’s current $720 target (down from $830) implies a staggering 74% upside from SPOT’s closing price today. The percentage jumps to 87% when calculating for Morgan Stanley’s just-issued $775 SPOT target.

Stated differently, the sweeping adjustments involve sizable prices – and are a decidedly bad break for those who invested in the not-so-distant past, when targets were pushing $1,000. Furthermore, they’re suggesting a double-digit climb for SPOT, which has slipped about 35% (over $222 per share) since mid-February 2025.

(On the other side of that coin, a quick-moving news cycle and fickle investors make it easy to overlook bigger-picture trends. Technically, notwithstanding its ongoing plateau, Spotify stock is worth over three times as much as it was in February 2023.)

Against this backdrop, it’ll be particularly interesting to see Spotify’s quarterly financials tomorrow morning, when Gustav Söderström and Alex Norström will host their first conference call as co-CEOs.

And while there’ll be a lot to unpack in that report as well as the full-year breakdown, a couple elements stand out as especially important from the stock-price perspective.

First, the market’s emphasis on continued profitability is clear enough; SPOT’s latest descent can be traced to shortly following Q2 2025, when the business broke its profitability streak and sent shares tumbling from a June peak of $785 a pop.

Next, whether Spotify can right the advertising ship is likewise a key focus. There are plenty of worthwhile angles from which to analyze the DSP’s ad-supported results. Perhaps the most telling: After six years, one podcasting (and video) craze, a heavy dose of inflation, and 305 million free-tier user additions, Spotify’s third-quarter adverts revenue grew by a modest €277 million (currently $330 million) across 2019 and 2025.

Admittedly, this also reflects the longstanding monetization challenges associated with emerging markets. But the Q4 results will be telling here as well; Spotify in mid-November overhauled its pricing and plans in India, Indonesia, South Africa, and other nations.