Will ‘Michael’ Beat ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ at the Box Office?

Photo Credit: Lionsgate

Lionsgate’s ‘Michael’ opens on April 24th, and it’s already well on its way to beating the musical biopic box office record holder, ‘Bohemian Rhapsody.’

Lionsgate’s Michael is about to be startin’ somethin’.

The musical biopic debuts on April 24th, but advance ticket sales data indicates an opening between $55 million and $60 million. That’s more than enough for the King of Pop to dethrone 2018’s Queen and Freddie Mercury biopic, Bohemian Rhapsody, which opened at $51 million.

Advance ticket sales include pre-sales for early access fan screenings on April 22nd, and they indicate an impressive three-day start, especially for a musical biopic. It’s up against heavy-hitters like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary, but still has a lot of people talking. Meanwhile, exhibitors who have already seen the film have been very positive about it.

The film stars Michael Jackson’s nephew Jaafar Jackson as the King of Pop, directed by Antoine Fuqua. Reportedly, it’s projected to do well in all demographics, but particularly—and unsurprisingly—those over 25. Also, with three weeks out, it’s still a bit early to say for certain, but the film is anticipated to do well even against box office heavyweights like Sinners and Oppenheimer when they reached the same point in tracking.

While the film officially releases on April 24th, there will be early fan screenings on April 22nd, and a world premiere on April 10th in Berlin at the Uber Eats Music Hall at Uber Square. To celebrate, there will be a full four-floor film experience complete with memorabilia from the movie as well as Jackson’s real-life career. Finally, on April 11th, there will be a “Get On the Dance Floor” Michael Jackson party.

Musical biopics can be hit or miss, with some films—like those based on Whitney Houston (I Wanna Dance With Somebody), Aretha Franklin (Respect), and Amy Winehouse (Back to Black) falling well below their expected thresholds and “failing to connect with mass audiences.” But some big earners like Bohemian Rhapsody or Elvis, and now, it appears, Michael, rake in the dough for their respective artists’ estates, and continue making it worth filmmakers’ time to take a gamble.