Music Streaming Prices to Rise Every 12-24 Months, Report Claims

The Goldman Sachs tower in New Jersey. Photo Credit: Jordan Merrick

Music fans should expect streaming price increases every 12 to 24 months moving forward – at least according to a Goldman Sachs report, which also anticipates that global on-demand subscribers will nearly double between 2024 and 2035.

These and other bullish takeaways come from a new Goldman breakdown, itself more or less a rehash of the larger “Music in the Air” report. In general, that annual analysis has over the years featured aggressive longer-term revenue forecasts.

But in an industry with so many moving parts and unknowns, accurately forecasting revenue trends one year out, let alone 10 years beforehand, is challenging. Additionally, it’s not exactly a secret that Goldman has investments in the music world and therefore possesses a rather clear-cut interest in growth for the sector.

Putting this information on the backburner, the just-published piece is banking on almost $200 billion in annual music-space revenue (across recorded, publishing, and live alike) in 2035.

Against the backdrop of a well-documented streaming plateau in established markets, what’s behind the rosy outlook? In part, anticipated contributions from live events and to a lesser extent superfan-geared offerings, the text shows.

But the initially mentioned price increases are likewise fueling the assessment. “We see increased confidence among industry participants that price increases will happen every 12-24 months going forward,” Goldman spelled out.

Chief among those industry participants are presumably the major record labels, which haven’t hesitated to urge ARPU improvements via price increases, charges for ad-supported users, and more.

However, logic and evidence suggest that services themselves might be on a different page in the ultra-competitive streaming arena. Apple Music, for example, has upped the price of Individual in the U.S. a grand total of once thus far, to the current $10.99 per month.

Running with the idea, direct comparisons between video- and music-streaming revenue are a big part of the report and the predictions therein.

Even so, there are key differences between the worlds. Just in passing, exclusives factor prominently into video, while music DSPs have largely overlapping catalogs and are looking to stand out with features such as DMs.

Adjacent to the considerations, consumers appear relatively receptive (or, at a minimum, not vehemently opposed) to video price increases – which, along with hard subscriber numbers, might explain the hesitancy to continue adjusting music streaming pricing in the U.S.

Then there’s the widely known (albeit little-discussed) fact that music fans are paying sizable sums to attend in-demand tours. Regardless of the money’s actual destinations, the reality probably isn’t making customers more tolerant of streaming price bumps.

In any event, besides maintaining that regular music streaming price increases will become the norm, Goldman is pointing to estimated growth from 752 million subscribers in 2024 to 1.5 billion by (not in) 2035. Needless to say, it’ll be interesting to see whether the seemingly conflicting trends can unfold simultaneously.