Global Music Publishing Revenue to Crack $14B in 2030: Report

A breakdown of estimated global music publishing revenue by source and year. Photo Credit: Omdia

Global music publishing revenue is on track to crack a record $10 billion this year – with forecasted increases poised to elevate the total past $14 billion in 2030, according to a new analysis.

This analysis comes from Informa TechTarget’s Omdia and points specifically to an anticipated 9.6% publishing growth rate for 2025. That’s compared to estimated annual growth of 5.2% for recorded music, which, of course, represents a much bigger piece of the pie.

Underscoring the “inextricably linked” nature of the recorded and publishing sides at the outset, the breakdown is banking on slowing music revenue improvements through 2030. However, at least from the perspective of percentage growth, the slowdown will affect recorded revenue more than the publishing counterpart, according to the resource.

By the numbers, said slowdown refers to 7.3%, 6.4%, 5.2%, 4.3%, and 3.7% annual publishing revenue boosts between 2026 and 2030, respectively – compared to 4.5%, 3.9%, 3.3%, 2.8%, and 2.3% for recorded revenue, per the data.

All told, that comes out to an average 5.4% annual growth rate for publishing – hence the initially mentioned 2030 forecast of $14.04 billion in revenue.

Unsurprisingly, a large portion of the predicted spike would derive from streaming, to the tune of over $8 billion in digital revenue in 2030, up from approximately $6 billion this year, per the analysis.

Even so – and in keeping with the previously highlighted growth percentages – the report rather directly forecasts an “inevitable slowdown in the growth of music streaming.”

“Music publishing is on a high at the moment and has been for the last few years,” elaborated Omdia senior principal analyst Simon Dyson. “The inevitable slowdown in the growth of music streaming will limit future publisher gains, but the sector will reach new revenue milestones over the next few years and the prospects for longer-term growth have never been so good.”

Time will tell exactly what the future holds on the industry revenue front; it probably goes without saying that making accurate predictions, especially half a decade beforehand in a space that’s constantly changing, is inherently difficult.

One major example on the compositional side: Newfound direct deal obsession or not, Spotify is reportedly securing an overall stateside royalties discount in the wake of its bundling craze. And who knows what kind of revenue the same platform’s gen AI buildout will unlock for rightsholders and professionals.

Furthermore, there’s certainly an opportunity to parlay the above numbers into different takeaways. The market-share details within Omdia’s Music & Copyright could prove useful, as could considering all the figures from the perspective of hard market-specific sales data.

But at the top level, the anticipated growth shifts in favor of publishing will be worth bearing in mind moving forward – including with regard to the billions in funding already committed to but not yet deployed on music IP.